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Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method
Cheng, Yonglong1; Gu, Baihe2; Tan, Xianchun1; Yan, Hongshuo1; Sheng, Yuhui1
Source PublicationSCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
KeywordCarbon emission allowances (CEA) Dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis ZSG-DEA Entropy method Gini coef ficient
AbstractTo balance China's socio-economic development and emission reduction goals, a fair and effective provincial carbon emission allowance (CEA) allocation is necessary. By considering the implied emissions of inter-provincial power transfer, this study designed a dynamic multi-criteria CEA allocation model based on four criteria-egalitarianism, historical responsibility, emission reduction capability, and emission efficiency-to calculate the provincial CEA year by year before 2030. The efficiency and fairness of the CEA scheme were evaluated through the Data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, the environmental Gini coefficient, and its grouped decomposition method. The national overall CEA, the results revealed, will peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period. Specifically, the CEA for eastern and central China is expected to peak first during the 14th FYP period, while the northeast region's CEA remains stable and that of the western region continues to grow. Provinces with high carbon emissions, high carbon emission intensity and high per capita carbon emissions and provinces with particularly high carbon emissions will face great pressure regarding emission reduction, and their CEA peaks are expected to arrive before 2025 and 2030 respectively. The CEA of the less-developed provinces will have a surplus. In terms of time, the high-emission provinces face greater emission reduction pressure during the 15th FYP period than during the 14th FYP period. In terms of scheme evaluation, the scheme achieved a double improvement in fairness and efficiency compared with the current actual emissions of various provinces. Reducing the differences in per capita CEA between the different regions and provinces in the western and eastern regions will help improve the scheme's fairness. This study overcomes the existing researches' shortcomings on the large differences in the distribution of emission reduction pressures in key provinces and is more feasible in practice.
2022
Volume837
ISSN0048-9697
SubtypeArticle
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155798
WOS KeywordREGIONAL ALLOCATION ; INITIAL ALLOCATION ; QUOTA ALLOCATION ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; EFFICIENCY ; PERFORMANCE ; ABATEMENT ; EQUITY ; LEVEL
Language英语
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000806053900011
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/12014
Collection可持续发展战略研究所
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, 15 ZhongGuanCun BeiYiTiao, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Cheng, Yonglong,Gu, Baihe,Tan, Xianchun,et al. Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2022,837.
APA Cheng, Yonglong,Gu, Baihe,Tan, Xianchun,Yan, Hongshuo,&Sheng, Yuhui.(2022).Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,837.
MLA Cheng, Yonglong,et al."Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 837(2022).
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