Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155798

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	Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method
	Cheng, Yonglong 1; Gu, Baihe2 ; Tan, Xianchun1 ; Yan, Hongshuo 1; Sheng, Yuhui 1
发表期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
关键词	Carbon emission allowances (CEA) Dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis ZSG-DEA Entropy method Gini coef ficient
摘要	To balance China's socio-economic development and emission reduction goals, a fair and effective provincial carbon emission allowance (CEA) allocation is necessary. By considering the implied emissions of inter-provincial power transfer, this study designed a dynamic multi-criteria CEA allocation model based on four criteria-egalitarianism, historical responsibility, emission reduction capability, and emission efficiency-to calculate the provincial CEA year by year before 2030. The efficiency and fairness of the CEA scheme were evaluated through the Data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, the environmental Gini coefficient, and its grouped decomposition method. The national overall CEA, the results revealed, will peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period. Specifically, the CEA for eastern and central China is expected to peak first during the 14th FYP period, while the northeast region's CEA remains stable and that of the western region continues to grow. Provinces with high carbon emissions, high carbon emission intensity and high per capita carbon emissions and provinces with particularly high carbon emissions will face great pressure regarding emission reduction, and their CEA peaks are expected to arrive before 2025 and 2030 respectively. The CEA of the less-developed provinces will have a surplus. In terms of time, the high-emission provinces face greater emission reduction pressure during the 15th FYP period than during the 14th FYP period. In terms of scheme evaluation, the scheme achieved a double improvement in fairness and efficiency compared with the current actual emissions of various provinces. Reducing the differences in per capita CEA between the different regions and provinces in the western and eastern regions will help improve the scheme's fairness. This study overcomes the existing researches' shortcomings on the large differences in the distribution of emission reduction pressures in key provinces and is more feasible in practice.
	2022
卷号	837
ISSN	0048-9697
文章类型	Article
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155798
关键词[WOS]	REGIONAL ALLOCATION ; INITIAL ALLOCATION ; QUOTA ALLOCATION ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; EFFICIENCY ; PERFORMANCE ; ABATEMENT ; EQUITY ; LEVEL
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000806053900011
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/12014
专题	可持续发展战略研究所
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, 15 ZhongGuanCun BeiYiTiao, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cheng, Yonglong,Gu, Baihe,Tan, Xianchun,et al. Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2022,837.
APA	Cheng, Yonglong,Gu, Baihe,Tan, Xianchun,Yan, Hongshuo,&Sheng, Yuhui.(2022).Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,837.
MLA	Cheng, Yonglong,et al."Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 837(2022).