Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.07.004

CASISD OpenIR > 可持续发展战略研究所

	Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming
	Zhang, Tianyi 1; Wiel, Karin van der 2; Wei, Taoyuan 3; Screen, James 4; Yue, Xu 5; Zheng, Bangyou 6; Selten, Frank 7; Bintanja, Richard 2,8; Anderson, Weston ; Blackport, Russell 4; Glomsrod, Solveig 3; Liu, Yu9,10 ; Cui, Xuefeng 11; Yang, Xiaoguang 12
发表期刊	ONE EARTH
摘要	Climate change poses complex impacts on the global wheat supply and demand chain. The impacts of climate change on average wheat yields are reasonably well studied, but its effects on yield variability and the associated economic consequences are poorly understood. Here, we show that future global wheat pri-ces will exhibit steeper spikes at 2 & DEG;C global warming (6.2% increase in the 95th percentile of global consumer price anomalies) despite a 1.7% increase in production given that CO2 fertilization benefits crops. Such eco-nomic stresses could be abated by trade liberalization with lower prices. However, on the supply side, trade liberalization has contrasting effects: the profitability of farmers in advanced economies can be maintained or even raised, but this will inevitably cause economic losses and inequalities for farmers in less-developed, wheat-importing countries. Agricultural trade liberalization accompanied by protection policies in developing countries would be beneficial for global food security in the threat of climate change.
	2022
卷号	5 期号:8 页码:907
ISSN	2590-3330
文章类型	Article
DOI	10.1016/j.oneear.2022.07.004
关键词[WOS]	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT ; SYSTEM ; YIELDS
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:000863201200012
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/12084
专题	可持续发展战略研究所
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atmo, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteorol, Nanjing, Peoples R China 3.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, De Bilt, Netherlands 4.Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway 5.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England 6.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Nanjing, Peoples R China 7.Queensland Biosci Precinct, CSIRO Plant Ind, Brisbane, Qld, Australia 8.Univ Groningen, Energy & Sustainabil Res Inst Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands 9.Society, Int Res Inst Climate, Palisades, NY USA 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China 11.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 12.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 13.China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Tianyi,Wiel, Karin van der,Wei, Taoyuan,et al. Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming[J]. ONE EARTH,2022,5(8):907.
APA	Zhang, Tianyi.,Wiel, Karin van der.,Wei, Taoyuan.,Screen, James.,Yue, Xu.,...&Yang, Xiaoguang.(2022).Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming.ONE EARTH,5(8),907.
MLA	Zhang, Tianyi,et al."Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming".ONE EARTH 5.8(2022):907.