Exploring energy consumption and demand in China

CASISD OpenIR > 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)

	Exploring energy consumption and demand in China
	Fan, Y; Xia, Y
发表期刊	ENERGY
关键词	Energy Intensity Energy Demand Hybrid Energy I-o Model Modified Ras
摘要	China has been experiencing industrialization and urbanization since reform and opening of its economy in 1978. Energy consumption in the country has featured issues such as a coal-dominated energy mix, low energy efficiency and high emissions. Thus, it is of great importance to explore the factors driving the increase in energy consumption in the past two decades and estimate the potential for decreasing energy demands in the future. In this paper a hybrid energy input-output model is used to decompose driving factors to identify how these factors impact changes in energy intensity. A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in a BAU scenario and an alternative scenario. The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. Energy demand in China will continue to increase at a rapid rate if the economy develops as in the past decades, and is projected to reach 4.7 billion tce in 2020. However, the huge potential for a decrease cannot be neglected, since growth could be better by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements. The total energy demand could be less than 4.0 billion tce in 2020. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
	2012
卷号	40 期号:1 页码:8,23-30
ISSN	0360-5442
学科领域	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000303146000004
引用统计	被引频次：84[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/4239
专题	中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fan, Y,Xia, Y. Exploring energy consumption and demand in China[J]. ENERGY,2012,40(1):8,23-30.
APA	Fan, Y,&Xia, Y.(2012).Exploring energy consumption and demand in China.ENERGY,40(1),8,23-30.
MLA	Fan, Y,et al."Exploring energy consumption and demand in China".ENERGY 40.1(2012):8,23-30.

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