A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

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	A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector
	Zhu, L; Fan, Y
发表期刊	APPLIED ENERGY
关键词	Ccs Technology Carbon Price Cost Saving Real Options Lsm
摘要	This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO(2) emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
	2011
卷号	88 期号:12 页码:14,4320-4333
ISSN	0306-2619
学科领域	Chemical ; Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000295387200008
引用统计	被引频次：106[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/4253
专题	中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, L,Fan, Y. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector[J]. APPLIED ENERGY,2011,88(12):14,4320-4333.
APA	Zhu, L,&Fan, Y.(2011).A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector.APPLIED ENERGY,88(12),14,4320-4333.
MLA	Zhu, L,et al."A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector".APPLIED ENERGY 88.12(2011):14,4320-4333.

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