中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院机构知识库

Since the Olympic Games will be held in Beijing at 2008, the urban development plan of Beijing deserves special attention. The essence of regional sustainable development is that population (P), resources (R), environment (E) and economy (E) could develop with sustenance, order and coordination during a certain period, which forms a complex system called the PREE complex system. For this system, a multi-objective integrated model is formulated and solved by a nonlinear goal programming technique. Beijing's PREE complex system is then used as an empirical study. Twelve interesting goals are carefully selected, the parameters of each goal function were estimated by using Beijing's 50-year (1949-1999) statistical data, and their ideal goal limits for 2000 and 2005 are chosen according to the 9th and 10th Five-Year Economic Development Plans of Beijing. The results showed that population size is the most sensitive element in Beijing's PREE complex system. Furthermore, some suggestions related to public policies about the urban development of Beijing are proposed.