Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data

doi:10.1007/s10479-020-03701-w

CASISD OpenIR

	Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data
	Sun, Xiaolei; Hao, Jun; Li, Jianping
发表期刊	ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
摘要	The optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio is a hot research issue in energy security, which is closely related to the implementation of national strategy and development of economy. Forecasting the demand of crude oil is the basis for portfolio optimization. Therefore, this paper innovatively introduces the decomposition hybrid interval prediction method and proposes a multi-objective programming model in order to provide decision-making support for the formulation of crude oil-supply portfolio scheme. Under the constraints of volume, price and risk, the minimum cost and risk of importing crude oil are achieved. Furthermore, by introducing optimization parameters and risk preference factors, and setting different scenarios for numerical simulation, the results show that (1) decomposition hybrid prediction methods perform better than single prediction methods. (2) As the optimization parameter increases, costs and risks are significantly decreased. Decision-makers can set large parameters to achieve significant optimization of the objective function. (3) The total cost of imported crude oil fluctuates sharply, while the total risk decreases with the increase of risk preference factors under the different scenarios. (4) The fluctuation of price and risk adjustment factors will cause the change of oil-supply portfolio optimization scheme.
	2020
DOI	10.1007/s10479-020-03701-w
语种	英语
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/9747
专题	中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Xiaolei,Hao, Jun,Li, Jianping. Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data[J]. ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH,2020.
APA	Sun, Xiaolei,Hao, Jun,&Li, Jianping.(2020).Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data.ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH.
MLA	Sun, Xiaolei,et al."Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data".ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH (2020).