Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120157

CASISD OpenIR

	Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030
	Chen, Kaihua; Ren, Zhipeng; Mu, Shijun; Sun, Tara Qian; Mu, Rongping
发表期刊	TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
摘要	Although scenario planning and the Delphi survey are widely used in long-term strategy planning, their combinations have not received enough attention, especially in the improvement of efficacy in scenario planning. The crucial step of scenario planning is the effective identification of the uncertain and most influential drivers and key factors. This paper integrates the Delphi survey into scenario planning. It proposes a four-step analytical procedure of Delphi survey-based scenario planning: identifying the key ingredients from Delphi results, establishing the causal relationships among key ingredients, scenario development, and scenario description. The integrated method has been adopted in the planning practice for the renewable energy development strategy towards 2030 in China. Based on the three uncertain and most influential drivers, technology development, ecological awareness, and national energy pricing, most possibly influencing the renewable energy development towards 2030 in China, a novel three-dimensional scenario analytical framework composed of eight future scenarios is constructed. Considering the possibility in China's practice, five scenarios are selected as possible development scenarios of China's renewable energy towards 2030. This paper develops possible policy choices for each selected scenario.
	2020
卷号	158
DOI	10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120157
语种	英语
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/9843
专题	中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院创新发展政策研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Kaihua,Ren, Zhipeng,Mu, Shijun,et al. Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030[J]. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,2020,158.
APA	Chen, Kaihua,Ren, Zhipeng,Mu, Shijun,Sun, Tara Qian,&Mu, Rongping.(2020).Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,158.
MLA	Chen, Kaihua,et al."Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 158(2020).