A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China

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	A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China
	Wang, S; Yu, L; Tang, L; Wang, SY
发表期刊	ENERGY
关键词	Hydropower Consumption Forecasting Lssvr Ensemble Learning Seasonal Decomposition
摘要	Due to the distinct seasonal characteristics of hydropower, this study tries to propose a seasonal decomposition (SD) based least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) ensemble learning model for Chinese hydropower consumption forecasting. In the formulation of ensemble learning model, the original hydropower consumption series are first decomposed into trend cycle, seasonal factor and irregular component. Then the LSSVR with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel is used to predict the three different components independently. Finally, these prediction results of the three components are combined with another LSSVR to formulate an ensemble result for the original hydropower consumption series. In terms of error measurements and statistic test on the forecasting performance, the proposed approach outperforms all the other benchmark methods listed in this study in both level accuracy and directional accuracy. Experimental results reveal that the proposed SD-based LSSVR ensemble learning paradigm is a very promising approach for complex time series forecasting with seasonality. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
	2011
卷号	36 期号:11 页码:13,6542-6554
ISSN	0360-5442
学科领域	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000297894500028
引用统计	被引频次：69[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/4255
专题	中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, S,Yu, L,Tang, L,et al. A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China[J]. ENERGY,2011,36(11):13,6542-6554.
APA	Wang, S,Yu, L,Tang, L,&Wang, SY.(2011).A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China.ENERGY,36(11),13,6542-6554.
MLA	Wang, S,et al."A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China".ENERGY 36.11(2011):13,6542-6554.

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