A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy
Zhang, XB; Fan, Y; Wei, YM
2009
Source PublicationENERGY POLICY
ISSN0301-4215
Volume37Issue:11Pages:10,4397-4406
AbstractChina's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently being prepared. But how large the optimal stockpile size for China should be, what the best acquisition strategies are, how to release the reserve if a disruption occurs, and other related issues still need to be studied in detail. In this paper, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model based on a total potential cost function of establishing SPRs to evaluate the optimal SPR policy for China. Using this model, empirical results are presented for the optimal size of China's SPR and the best acquisition and drawdown strategies for a few specific cases. The results show that with comprehensive consideration, the optimal SPR size for China is around 320 million barrels. This size is equivalent to about 90 days of net oil import amount in 2006 and should be reached in the year 2017, three years earlier than the national goal, which implies that the need for China to fill the SPR is probably more pressing; the best stockpile release action in a disruption is related to the disruption levels and expected continuation probabilities. The information provided by the results will be useful for decision makers. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
KeywordStochastic Dynamic Programming Strategic Petroleum Reserve Optimization
Subject AreaEnergy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000271824600023
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/4615
Collection中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, XB,Fan, Y,Wei, YM. A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2009,37(11):10,4397-4406.
APA Zhang, XB,Fan, Y,&Wei, YM.(2009).A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy.ENERGY POLICY,37(11),10,4397-4406.
MLA Zhang, XB,et al."A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy".ENERGY POLICY 37.11(2009):10,4397-4406.
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