Spatiotemporal variation in reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in China under future scenarios

doi:10.1002/joc.6429

CASISD OpenIR

	Spatiotemporal variation in reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in China under future scenarios
	Zhao, Jincai; Xia, Haibin; Yue, Qun; Wang, Zheng
发表期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
摘要	Global climate change is likely to affect reference evapotranspiration (ET0), which is important for agricultural water resources and food security. Analysis of ET0 changes is also important for understanding climate change and its impacts on hydrology. In this study, ET0 was calculated from 2020 to 2099 in nine agricultural regions and the entire country of China utilizing the Penman-Monteith method based on bias-corrected climate data from the global climate models MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorES1-M, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM 2M and HadGEM2-ES under future climate change scenarios. The spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal and annual ET0 and climatic variables were analysed based on the Mann-Kendall test with trend-free prewhitening (TFPW-MK) and Sen's slope estimator. Sensitivity coefficient and multivariate regression were used to identify factors controlling the change in ET0. The results showed that seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation both increased under all climate scenarios, and the majority of relative humidity and wind speed values showed downward trends during 2020-2099. The lowest annual ET0 values were found in the NECR and QTR, and the SCR had the maximum ET0. Both the TFPW-MK and slope statistics showed an upward trend of seasonal ET0 during 2020-2059 under all scenarios. During 2060-2099, seasonal ET0 values showed a slight and nonsignificant downward trend under RCP 2.6, while upward trends were produced in other scenarios. Areas with high ET0 values were located in the SCR, GXR and HHHR, while low ET0 values mainly occurred in the NECR and QTR. The ET0 for the four seasons in the SCR was higher than that in the other regions, and the summer ET0 was the highest compared with that in the other seasons overall. For the attribution assessment, T-avg is the main controlling variables to ET0 trends under the interaction of multiple climatic factors though RH is the most sensitive.
	2020
卷号	40
DOI	10.1002/joc.6429
语种	英语
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/9777
专题	中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Jincai,Xia, Haibin,Yue, Qun,et al. Spatiotemporal variation in reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in China under future scenarios[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2020,40.
APA	Zhao, Jincai,Xia, Haibin,Yue, Qun,&Wang, Zheng.(2020).Spatiotemporal variation in reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in China under future scenarios.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,40.
MLA	Zhao, Jincai,et al."Spatiotemporal variation in reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in China under future scenarios".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 40(2020).